Putin’s Ukrainian Cost-Benefit “Investment” Decision

Putin’s Ukrainian success with The Crimea, his seeming focus on the rest of The Ukraine and his alleged pursuit of Russia taking over more countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijanis , is likely based on Cost-Benefit “Investment” Decision.

According to www.investopedia.com, a Cost-Benefit Investment decision is a “process by which business decisions are analyzed. The benefits of a given situation or business-related action are summed and then the costs associated with taking that action are subtracted.”

What are some of the many benefits to Mr. Putin?

  1. Ukraine has a population of 45 million workers who can become Russian tax payers as well of consumers of Russian products and services
  2. Ukraine has a 2013 GDP of $337.360 billion which will be a regular annual addition to Russia’s GDP for the rest of eternity
  3. More countries with oil will control the market and enable higher prices and larger profits
  4. As other countries see how easy it is for Putin to take them over, Ukraine essentially becomes a tipping point for more easy annexations. If each country has a GDP like Ukraine of $337 billion, annexing 3 countries gets Putin to a trillion dollar GDP increments
  5. Destabilizing Ukraine could stop or influence the presidential elections, due on May 25th. That would deprive Ukraine of the elected leadership it needs to restore order.
  6. Claims (see wikipedia.com) allege that Putin secretly possesses a fortune of $70 billion from backdoor financial manipulations. So every time “Russia” annexes a country, Putin will get a “piece of the action”
  7. And the list of benefits go on and on and on

 

What are Putin’s Costs?

  1. Some bank accounts will be frozen. Yet frozen means unfrozen some time. And it is unlikely that Putin did not anticipate this and make arrangements before-had to extricate money.
  2. The cost of his army. Well, since blood-shed is very unlikely, the army costs pretty much the same in peace as in war.
  3. Trade sanctions. See the article “Putin Laughs at Your Sanctions” at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/16/the_folly_of_sanctions_russia_ukraine_putin_deterrence .

Putin versus Obama

Putin is faced with highly intelligent President Obama who, unlike his predecessor Mr. Bush, has an established track record of appeasement and talk than strong confrontational action.

Intellectuals, by definition, intellectualize which is Mr. Obama’s great strength. However every strength has weaknesses depending on the situation, just like a beautiful women attract good attention but also the bad.

Mr. Putin, has established his approach within Russia as well as outside, that “might is right”. Mr. Obama wants to think, talk about it and intellectualize.

Be a ripple in the pond. Make our world a better place!!!

Do the right thing! Pay it forward. Together, let’s make a positive difference. 

“To give back and be given is to feel the sun from both sides” … Harry Mingail

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